Rookie Leading the WDC

[Ultra]

No Rookie has ever won the WDC.  Lewis Hamilton leads the championship going into Monaco.  Is this the year history is made.  If Lewis came out of Monaco with a win, he could become an even more formidable adversary to his teammate as well as to the Scuderia.

So what do you think, can Lewis win the title this year?   Please vote and explain your reasoning below.

[Otto Puzzell]

What with accidents, equipment failures, and other variables, either of the McLaren or Ferrari drivers has a roughly equal chance. Hence, I put the young fella at a solid 25%

[Ultra]

I've got him at 40% using an amalgamation of the logic you are using, his current lead, his apparent measure of Alonso out of the box and the likelihood, IMHO, that he will improve more than Alonso over the course of the season.

[mpatrizio]

You must know that I'm breathing fire over the fact that a driver with zero wins is ahead of a driver that has 2 wins.

[Allan L]

You must know that I'm breathing fire over the fact that a driver with zero wins is ahead of a driver that has 2 wins.

Like 1958 when it was won with one win from second place with four wins and third with three (out of ten races)

[Jagman]

Well, I'm with Ultra on his reasons, and I gave him a 40% chance as well. I like the kid, and McLaren has shown good form so far. It's going to be a tough season for the front 4, and even tougher for the rest of the field to break thru past them.

[Stephen M]

I'll give the Burrow Owl's #1 driver a 30% shot at the championship.

He's got a shot, no doubt, but there's just way too much up to chance this season to say anyone is a lock, or even over 50% at this point.

[Tifosi]

Hamilton doesn't have the pressure to perform that Alonso, Raikkonen and Massa have...he has no reputation to uphold, so all he has to do is drive, drive, drive...and he's doing that.  However, as the season progresses, things will undoubtedly get tougher for him.  If he can get a couple of wins under his belt and build up a big lead, he might persevere to the championship, but he has 3 very hungry and more experienced drivers nipping at his heels.  If he can keep his cool, he might just win it all...but the season is just getting underway...there's a lot of luck involved in winning any championship; and so far, Lewis' has all been good.

I think the top 4 will be the only contenders for the title, and I'd love to see Lewis Hamilton win it, but the odds are really against him...25 percent chance...maybe a little less...

Dan

[mpatrizio]

I'm the one who gives him zero percent, because I just don't see Alonso or Ron Dennis letting it happen.

Alonso already prevented Hamilton from attending the uber-important Barcelona test....  While it didn't impact him there, it will catch up with him sometimge.

Plus, there's no doubt in my mind that Ferrari will win this title.

[Ultra]

You must know that I'm breathing fire over the fact that a driver with zero wins is ahead of a driver that has 2 wins.

This is the theoretical ranking following the classic 9-6-4-3-2-1 system:
Hamilton 22, Massa 21, Alonso 21, Raikkonen 17.

[Allan L]

This is the theoretical ranking following the classic 9-6-4-3-2-1 system:
Hamilton 22, Massa 21, Alonso 21, Raikkonen 17.

What about going further back and giving a point for fastest lap.
Not relevant yet, but in those schemes you could only count your best  6 (out of 10) races (or similar proportion)

[mpatrizio]

You must know that I'm breathing fire over the fact that a driver with zero wins is ahead of a driver that has 2 wins.

This is the theoretical ranking following the classic 9-6-4-3-2-1 system:
Hamilton 22, Massa 21, Alonso 21, Raikkonen 17.

Actually, the prior system was 10-6-4-3-2-1.
Massa 23, Hamilton 22, Alonso 22, Raikkonen 18
(but you knew I was going to respond with this, didn't you?    )

Personally, I think it should be 12-8-6-5-4-3-2-1

But what do I know?

[Allan L]

Today at Monte Carlo will sort out how good Hamilton is. That is the one remaining circuit where, if one is not a precision driver of the "old school" it quickly ends in tears.
The weather forcast is for showers so it can be even quicker!

[Allan L]

Well there were no showers and quite remarkable only two cars were driven into the scenery. A good clean, but boring race, I'd say.

[MG]

Monaco usually is pretty much of a procession.  I was annoyed at Peter Winsor down on the pre-race grid chasing after celebrities I had never heard of and cared nothing about like an acne scarred teenager.

I give high marks to Scott Speed for an excellent drive. This boy may have more potential than most give him credit for.  Well done!   

[Jagman]

You've never heard of Jean Reno? You never saw Ronin? Shame on you! You call your self a carnut?